Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Business/Economy > 2nd episode: Tunisia vs. Taiwan

Sounds like a game of soccer eh? Football that is! If it was the case, we’ll certainly beat them, but not in this post unfortunately.

Tunisia, my dear republic, and Taiwan have got a lot in common; form the ‘T’ in the country name to the size of their population, the date of their independence, the reserves of their natural resources – though Tunisia has a slight edge here - and the human capital.

Taiwan and Tunisia are most of the time cited in comparative studies by the UN on development and emerging countries. Yet, Taiwan seems ahead of us by more than 50yrs in terms of development and entrepreneurship.

Oh yeah, that’s the word I was looking for, Entrepreneurship which leads to enterprise, venture, innovation, capital, profit, investment, human resources, all what drives an economy.
  • In Taiwan, the ratio of companies per capita is 100 times more than of Tunisia,
  • In Taiwan, the rate of internal & external investment is 100 times more than of Tunisia,
  • In Taiwan, the productivity index is 500 times more than of Tunisia,
  • In Taiwan, the ratio of virtually anything is X times more than of Tunisia,

And keep in mind, Taiwan, is not even recognized as a country yet, and has no diplomatic relations with the rest of the world. Taiwan can disappear anytime if not for the 7th fleet stationed around the island, with AWACS in the air and SSNs under water watching the PRC’s mighty army that is standing by to invade by order from beijing.

So why Taiwan is so prosperous compared to Tunisia?

First: Our investment habit, REAL ESTATE ALL THE WAY
A typical Tunisian family normally thinks about investing in real estate for their first house which is pretty standard in any society, but when disposable income grows, the family goes for a second house, a third house, sometimes an apartment building or even a hotel, well anything that is build with mortar and brick. Monopoly (the game) style investment :-)

Such investment is considered dormant money with steady income & low risk, but when that type of investment becomes too excessive, the economy takes a hit because:

Investment 101 for emerging countries: is about puting your money in busineses, that is large caps as well as small caps, however the best investment is into VC, ah that’s another magic word i was looking for: Venture Capital (Capital Risque, SICAR, etc) .
FYI: Taiwan’s VC rate is 1000 times (one thousand) more than of Tunisia, therefore we clearly lack local VC, people's VC., especially
that we have lots of rich people in Tunisia that can lift our VC rate 10 folds, but...

Second: Ok, I got the money, now I want to invest, but where?
Nowhere!!! Because there no big pool of companies to invest in.
In fact, looking at the Tunisia’s NYSE equivalent (we wish we had one), L’indice BVM, you will notice that only a handful of companies are listed (which means publicly traded), yet Taiwan, has 100 times our rate.

So in Tunisia, you can either invest in banks (classical boring type of investment) or Hotels, now it seems like few Airlines are publicly traded too, aside a handful of utilities companies and the beer company SFBT.

What about the others? The big players in the industry? Well, they’re private and private companies are no good for investment, because the average investor needs to know the P/E, X/Y, the EPS and all those financial indicators that help assess the value of a corporation in order to predict where it is heading.

Well private companies have no obligation to release financial statements and be accountable to the financial regulators; therefore you will never know if they’re in the black, the red or going bankrupt tomorrow.

So what’s left? Real estate and government bonds, so now we’re back to square one and the looser is? The economy again!!! Needless to say, that the economy means average Joe! That is, you and me.

Third: Ownership
God, how much I dislike how companies in Tunisia are owned or started, from the small grocer to the big conglomerate.

You got the father, the grand father, the son, the step-son, the son-in-law, the daughter-of-the-son-in-law, down the entire genealogy!!!
In addition to the company being private, you end up with a system that is opaque, and lacks strategy and direction, except probably for the desire to be BIG and crash the other competitors.

And god forbids, if the grand father dies, the company is split among 24+, and becomes so weak that it’s quickly put into bankruptcy, why? Because the son and the grand-son, care less about the business, they didn’t go to a business school, and everyone wants to restart his OWN thing, everyone wants to be a BOSS, a BOSS at any COST!

As a side note, I know few people in the US who were sent by their fathers to study aeronautics so they can display their diploma later while being a COO of a shoe manufacturing company. Actually, allow me to be rude here and say that these were sent abroad to escape MILITARY SERVICE in Tunisia!

Fourth: I’m a buinessman with a business card wearing an Yves Saint Laurent tie
FACT: The success rate of startups in Tunisia hovers around 20-30%, mostly towards the 20%, such a number is so low that the state is loosing millions of dollars in initial funding; millions that are not even raised from taxes but through loans, foreign loans (ouch!!!)

Why is such rate so low you would ask? You would think that with IHEC, ISG around and, a huge talent of resources, especially with an armada of elite educated and experienced abroad, things should look brighter right?

Well, here’s the deal, some entrepreneurs have no concept of real entrepreneurships whatsoever, and they got their priorities screwed up from the beginning.

In fact, the first thing a typical ‘would be chef d’entreprise’ would do is buy the FURNITURE. Oh yeah, the EXECUTIVE LEATHER CHAIR, then the black, fully loaded BMW, next, the 2 direct phone lines + the fax line and the fancy flat screen PC and last but not the least the HOT, BIG-breasted, round-ass Sexy Secretary! (Women no offence)

With 60% of the money spent, Mr. Executive realizes that it’s time to get to work and complete that bashed business plan, the marketing plan and the production plan, yet, By the time most of the plans are in half decent shape, accounts run dry.
So instead of cutting spending and speeding up revenue, Mr. Executive prefers to go into default, then to debt and finally, inevitably, bankruptcy.

Conclusion:
Changes need to happen and happen NOW; change should not stem from the GOV either, coz the GOV - to its credit - has gone above and beyond their mandate in helping jumpstart the entrepreneurs. It’s the people that need to evolve and get their priorities straight….probably a simple Google on ‘Taiwan’ would help.

11 Comments:

Blogger 3617MyLif€ said...

Very good article, a long one but really worth reading.
I totally agree with the four points you mentionned. So if I understand you correctly, the problem is in mentalities. And how would you change a human state of mind?
Everyone wants big cash, wants to show up!!
So the revolution have to be made by middle class tunisians. And when you get a closer look to the tunisian society you'll see that the middle class is disappearing. On the one had you've got wealthy people not really interested in the economic growth but only in their own affairs. And in the other side you've got "poors" who can't engage themselves in an entrepreneurship adventure.
Have you ever heard of capital risk in Tunisia?
At the same time banks are giving loans without garanties to upper class people. Things are slightly changing but what you destroy in one second you put a century to rebuild it.

4:42 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Execellent article !

En surfant sur ton blog, j'eus une envie un peu speciale ... les expressions tunisiennes ...... la suite sur le blog "YA RAYI" (je n'ai pas vu l'adresse trackback sinon je l'aurai utilisée)
http://officiel.rai.free.fr

je lance le bal avec ....

7:53 AM  
Blogger Zizou From Djerba said...

bravo napo !
tu ne peux pa savoir kaddeche tfarhadli ala kalbi kif nakra tes posts !
merci !

8:17 PM  
Blogger Hannibal said...

Napo your post could be the subject of a PhD :)I am serious. I enjoyed your line of thoughts. Well Taiwan and Tunisia are centuries apart and you said it. Between Tunisia and Taiwan I think it's mainly a cultural problem.

10:59 PM  
Blogger Napo said...

Hannibal, thanks for the high regards. So many people write about this in phd disserations, and the like, but none are brought forward to the general public, via forums or talk shows or any other mean that promotes general awareness, phds (except in north america) end up usually in the university library or refered to from time to time by yet another PHd disseration. Mokh il hadra, faudra vulgariser le probleme et l'expliquer au tunisien moyen...
To answer your question, the difference is indeed cultural problem.

9:30 AM  
Blogger Napo said...

@3617, banks are taking a beating coz of their loans without guarantes, many private tunisian banks were sold cheap just because of such practive. however this has ceased lately and things are not more tightly controlled
"Capital Risk" is the french translation of VC.

9:32 AM  
Blogger 3617MyLif€ said...

@Napo: Banks were sold cheap for sure but the unpaid loans remain I guess.
Thanks for the translation of "Capital Risk" ;-)

11:05 AM  
Blogger Napo said...

@3617, you got it !!!
(btw, excuse my typos in my previous post, 'practive' should read practice, etc)

12:00 PM  
Blogger Leilouta said...

My husband likes your blog:)

9:58 PM  
Blogger Bugsbunny said...

Napo je sui kif echouka fi 7al9k. Je suis toujours là pour te contrarier et j'espère que tu n'y vois pas une offense.
Je pense que tu n'as raison et j'insiste surtout sur la mentalité des Tunisiens. Ne nous sous-estimons pas en tant que Tunisiens.
Comparer notre cher pays à Taiwan sans tenir compte des facteurs géopolitiques est une erreur. Et l'erreur est encore plus grande lorsque nous jetons tous sur la mentalité et la culture tunisienne.
Pour mettre Taiwan dans son cadre géopolitique:
Le 20 siècle à été marqué par la guerre entre le capitalisme et le communisme jusqu'en 1990. Taiwan, South Corea Hongkong Japan et l'Europe de l'autre coté, représentaient la limite géographique du communisme. Et pour endiguer le communisme il fallait que ces pays aient des économies capitalistes fortes. Ils ont tous bénéficiés de l'appui américain anglais français … et ce qui a surtout facilité leurs développements c'est que ces pays ont profités du marché asiatique du fait de leur proximité géographique et culturelle. Il y a suffisamment de consommateurs dans la région pour écouler leurs produits.
Après la chute du mur de Berlin et la défaite communiste face au capitalisme, nous assistons au réveil chinois. La chine un géant qui accepte de jouer le jeu du capitalisme. Cela représente encore un sérieux danger pour l'économie américaine. Il va falloir encore soutenir Taiwan. A mon avis, vous vous méprenez sur les raisons de la réussite de Taiwan face à la Tunisie. Je ne pense pas du tout que c'est une affaire de mentalité ou de culture. D'un autre coté vous oubliez de dire qu'en comparant notre bien chère patrie aux pays qui sont dans notre cadre géopolitique, le Maghreb, c'est nous qui sans richesse naturelles réussissons le mieux. Ce n'est certainement pas pour dire que nous ne pouvons pas mieux faire bien au contraire. Après 1990 et la disparition du communisme, nous assistons à l'instauration du nouvel ordre mondial en deux mots c'est l'empire américain qui est entrain de remodeler le monde pour assoire sa suprématie sur les économies émergentes de l'Asie en particulier la chine et sur l'économie Européenne. Malheureusement pour nous géographiquement nous sommes un pays satellite de l'Europe le groupe le plus faible dans cette nouvelle guerre.
Nous subissons l'invasion des produits chinois qui tuent nos produits, nos entreprises et nos clients étrangers. Ce n'est pas du tout le cas de Taiwan
Nous subissons la dévaluation intentionnelle américaine du dollar face à l'Euro la majorité de nos importations sont en Euro nous importons pour plus chère.
Nous subissons la flambée des prix du pétrole. Pour freiner la croissance économique chinoise il faut que les chinois achètent le pétrole plus cher tant pis pour nous.
Chers amis n'accusez plus à tort nos chers concitoyens et leurs mentalités. Quand à la consommation des produits nationaux Je pense que toutes les mesures de protectionnisme et de favoritisme pour les produits Tunisiens sont mauvaises. Si le produit Tunisien est au même niveau que les bons produits d'importations les Tunisiens achèteront tout naturellement Tunisien. Napo si ta banque canadienne ouvre une agence au bled à Tunis je suis certain que suite à ta mésaventure racontée dans "Immigration > 3eme épisode : Napo rentre a Tunis pour les Vacances" tu ne consommeras pas Tunisien. S'il y a une guerre qu'il faut gagner chez nous c'est la guerre de la qualité. Il va falloir nous adapter.
Pour la frime qui a l'aire de te déranger, tu ne la remarque pas au Canada parce que les gens sont économiquement à l'aise et cela ne t'empêche pas de voir pas mal de limousines circuler. C'est un phénomène social naturel. Chaque société à ses codes pour afficher la réussite sociale en Tunisie c'est BOSS YSL BMW … cela va te faire rire au Benin les gens mettent des lunettes même s'ils n'ont pas de problèmes de vues pour afficher leur réussite sociale. Peut importe si les gens frimes l'important c'est qu'ils gagnent honnêtement leurs moyens. Je ne pense pas que c'est la frime des entrepreneurs qui met au ko leurs entreprises. C'est plutôt le marché qui impose ses lois.

6:52 AM  
Blogger Napo said...

@Buggs, ton opinion a beaucoup de merit. il est important de debattre le probleme de tous les cotes, toutefois l'aborder avec un esprit purement contradictoire ou comme tu dis chouka fil halq n'avancera pas le debat..surtout lorsque l'initiative pour proposer des solutions manque...

dans tous les cas, merci pour ton passage et j'espere te voir plus souvant ici, meme en tant que chouka fil 7alq, dans ce cas, tu sera considere comme le Verificateur General !!! qui vient justement de faire tomber tout un gouvernement au Canada.

9:24 AM  

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