War > Strategic and Tactical Analysis

Israel is at war, again.

I had a hard time believing that Israel didn’t participate in triggering the war. In fact, since the withdrawal from Lebanon by then PM Ehud Barak, Israel was faced with a big dilemma. How to keep the northern border safe while at the same time silencing Hezbollah?

Hence came planning for the ‘Lebanon campaign’. Israel was just looking for the right time and motive to initiate it.

By attacking Hamas, Israel predicted that Hezbollah (the only other hostile force in the region) will retaliate to show solidarity with the Palestinians. Israel hoped that the extent of Hezbollah’s move was to fire few rockets in some isolated towns, which in military term is called a ‘skirmish’, that will draw a classic response of shelling the south.

But, Hezbollah, this time went further by kidnapping soldiers from within Israel itself and setting traps to IDF SAR teams (busted a tank with 4 crew in it). By military standards, this operation could be classified as total success because it showed a high level of coordination, planning, sealth & execution, only reserved to the big guys.

Israel, could not let unnoticed such success, and had to react, it had two options, perform a prisoners swap or engage in a long punishing campaign, the ‘Lebanon campaign’.

The US administration, dominated by the neo-con, the Christian-Jew coalition & a desire to put more pressure on Syria and Iran and get rid of Hezbollah once and for all gave the much needed green light to Israel to start the campaign.

The campaign has many facts to it:

1) Military.

a. Phase 1: Israel should cut off Hezbollah from its suppliers and cripple its ability to wage a long war. Hence the shelling of bridges, the sea/air/land blockade, the airports etc. Hezbollah itself, as a war machine was little harmed; instead the IDF went after the infrastructure that supports Hezbollah, unfortunately such infrastructure is Lebanese too. This will guarantee that Hezbollah’s reserves and munitions will deplete quickly with no supplies.

b. Phase 2: Once Hezbollah is completely cut-off, its C&C destroyed, its ability to move fighters and coordinate rocket lunches is degraded, then Israel will move into southern Lebanon and establish a buffer zone and reduce the risk of northern shelling, this of course, if no cease-fire was agreed upon by both parties. But given the current conditions of Israel for a cease-fire, it is unlikely a comprise will be agreed upon in the very short term and Israel knows that !!!

c. Phase 3: Expose Hezbollah’s hidden arsenal, technologies acquired from allies, level of sophistication and potentially mercenary links and so far they have succeeded to gather critical information about Hezbollah’s weaponry. The Iranian land to sea missile used to knock-off an IDF naval vessel is an example, with more surprises to come. This is a tremendous opportunity for Israel to adjust its defensive and offensive plans and get on par with Hezbollah’s threat.

2) Political:

a. Israel is using this context to prove & enforce the designation by the world that Hezbollah is a terrorist organization and that the latter needs to be uprooted ASAP while ironically referring to UN resolutions. So far it is somewhat working since 3 Arab states already feel into the trap and re-aligned their position to Israel by denouncing Hezbollah indirectly.

b. Olmert, a novice PM is using Israel’s emotional reaction to the abduction of soldiers - a soldier is a son in view of the Jews population – to implement the military sponsored Lebanon campaign and to settle once and for all the question of whether he can govern or not.

c. Israel was always singled out as an agressive nation, an opressive nation. The kidnapping as well as the shelling of the north is an opportunity to turn the tide in the eyes of the public opinion and put israel as a victim state defending itself. This is so far working, but it will eventually wear out.

3) The hidden agenda:

a. Lebanon is growing as strong democracy in the Middle East, a prosperous nation, a competitor in the tourism sector, foreign direct investments and agricultural output. From an economical standpoint, that is a threat to Israel that needs to be eliminated or crippled for the next 20years. What a better excuse, than using Hezbollah?

b. Israel is to send a reminder message to Syria and Iran, that it can go after many fronts, although the Gaza front is a piece of cake, Israel is proving to its neighbors, and to the world that it has the might to handle more than one front – a US doctrine – and that it can go after the enemy wherever they are. Although, one can debate it’s feasibility from a tactical standpoint. This is extremely important to the public opinion and the morale of the Jews who constantly feel under threat.

c. Israel, a country built on military might and wars has not been in open warfare since 1982. This is for them a golden opportunity to practice new tactical plans learned over the past 10years, especially the latest mods to their F-16s, their new integrated yet mobile C&C, their ability to mobilize man and hardware in a very short time and their civilian emergency preparedness In military terms, this is called an integrated tactical engagement.

d. Ironically, the ultimate goal of Israel is to seek Peace very quickly as Ciceco, says “Let war yield to peace, laurels to paeans”. But a Peace on their own terms. Israel has the might granted, but as a sustainable economy, it is very fragile and they can not withstand a long campaign because the American tax-payer can not afford it…and there is a risk that the Arab population may take things in their own hand. Prolonging the campaign without keeping a backdoor open is extremely risk business for Israel too, as motives for the intervention will fade way and be replaced by day to day pictures of suffering and despair. A good general always think about options to retreat & negotiate prior to firing the first salvo.

4) The Risk:

Either party can make the following mistakes:

1) Hezbollah fires at tel-aviv or use non conventional weapons.
2) IDF makes a blunder and triggers an un-acceptable number of collateral damage (i.e. a 400 death at once)

In either case, the campaign will become un-planned, un-predictable, un-calculated and extremely dangerous.

Scenarios could include
1) Air strikes against military installation against Syria, with latter declaring war against Israel and flying missiles in.
2) Air strikes against Iranian nuclear installation backed by the US intelligence, which in return will trigger long range missile barrage against Israeli targets.
3) Increase in world-wide terrorism.
4) Iraq meltdown
5) Oil embargo

But the world has also learned to intervene the right time, and i believe this will get resolved within the next few days...and this war will go into the history books ....as any other war...